Our Model for BDA Outcomes

Here’s a schematic of how we understand BDA Outcomes and how we are assessing them. The animated figure arrays the four tiers that we distinguish:

1. At the base – IT Foundations (the hardware and software enabling BDA。
2. 2nd tier – Analytics and Services thereby made available, focusing on 5 functions enabled
3. 3rd tier – Uses and Applications
4. 4th tier – Potential Outcomes (or Effects or Impacts) of the use of BDA。

We have enumerated a lot of possible outcomes. We recognize the challenges in assessing future possibilities:[1]

“Nothing in our evolutionary heritage prepared our brains to think clearly about the distant future….”
…”humans have a hard time imagining the potential negative consequences of their actions.”
The functions (2d tier) and Uses/Applications (3d tier) can result in an enormous range of effects, affecting a spectrum of stakeholders (essentially ‘everyone’). The coloring associates sets of such outcomes with functional drivers (but causation is very diffuse). We seek your aid in enriching and clarifying the compilation of possible BDA effects.

We offer slides that try to separate positive from negative effects. Do you agree?

(Note: Click on the figure to expand the various sections.)

We next seek to screen the candidate outcomes by estimating their Likelihood of occurring and their potential Magnitude (impact). We particularly want to identify the most threatening negative impacts.

Once we have accumulated and digested those estimates, we will invite ideas on policy options to mitigate potential negative outcomes.


[1] Laura Carstensen, The new age of aging, Time, Feb. 22-29, 2016, 60-62.