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LOST in the numbers

LOST in the numbers

First, sorry for the brief blog hiatus. I came down with Bronchitis and have not been able to type more than four words without coughing for a week. I will say if you’re looking for a quick way to drop 10 lbs you may want to look into acquiring this lovely condition, otherwise it pretty much stinks.

Ever seen Lost? It’s ok if you haven’t, because now you at least know what you’re doing this summer, as it’s bar none the greatest TV series of all time. In the show, Hurley (Jorge Garcia) is shown through flashbacks to have won the lottery with the numbers 4.8.15.16.23.42. Over the ensuing weeks, everyone around him suffers horribly bad luck. He then visits a mental asylum where he apparently had resided for a time, to talk to another patient who keeps repeating the same numbers. When Hurley tells him that he used the numbers, Lenny panics and shouts, “The numbers are bad! You gotta get away from them!” The numbers continue to come up throughout the show in meaningful and correlated ways, and at times in random unconnected situations. Intrigued? If not watch the trailer here.

4.8.15.16.23.42. It’s April (4) 8th, 15th, 16th, 23rd….42nd! “Ahhhh!! The numbers are bad! You gotta get away from them!” The proverbial countdown is on as we approach the May 1 National Deposit Deadline. Before coffee, picking up a toothbrush, or checking the weather, Deans, Directors, and VPs around the country are waking up each day and immediately checking deposit reports on their phones and Ipads. “Are we up from last year?…Oh man, I hope not too far up or housing is going to kill me! “Are we down in students from abroad? Is it too early to go to our waitlist?” Scroll down: “How does our SAT average compare to last year?” Scroll down: “Do we have a kid from every state and enough in every major?” “Are you sleeping with your phone?” Wait… that’s not my voice. Roll over: “Yes, sweetheart. Gotta check the numbers.” (She always tells me with a mixture of concern and confusion that I make too much of an effort to think like a 17 year old, and I know the whole sleeping with the phone thing only adds ammo to her growing arsenal.)

 

4.8.15.16.23.42. So we made you wait for months on an admission decision, and now the tables are turned. Joke is on us. I’ve been reading back over my own advice on waiting and confirmed… it sucks! It’s a maddening time because we are asked daily “how are we looking on numbers?” by our President, Provost, Deans, Boards, housing directors, student reporters, random guys at the gas station… And we try to speak with some confidence knowing that 10 days is an eternity, because like applications, hundreds of deposits will come in over the last day or two, which will change everything. Inevitably there will be many calls on April 30 asking if the deadline is midnight that day or May 1 at midnight– followed often by, “which time zone?” (Don’t be that person!) Not too long ago, when many deposits were mailed in with checks, we asked for a post-marked date of May 1. That was even more frustrating because you had to wait each day on buckets to arrive from campus mail. It was literally all hands on deck with letter openers, sorting trays, and band aids for paper cuts. Good times! I know Deans that used to go straight to the mail house around this time of year because they didn’t want to wait on Fred the mail guy to chat it up in the Chemistry department and hold up delivery.

4.8.15.16.23.42. Ultimately, we need about 2950 deposits. That way when we lose (“melt”) deposits/commitments over the summer, due to schools pulling our deposits from their waitlists, breakups, financial reasons, Visa issuance hold ups, yellow pants just don’t work in the color palette, etc., we end up at our target of 2800 in the class. So on April 8th we had 1481 deposits; on the 15th, we had 1871; on the 16th 1912.  While it scares me to report out of sequence before the 23rd, this a.m. we had 2107 deposits. Hold please. Ok, now 2112.

So that’s what’s up with me. Coughing less, sleeping less, using the word “gotta” more, but hopefully some insight from the college side. One takeaway for those of you on waitlists is this: because there is so much movement in numbers in the final week, it is rare that schools will begin to pull from their waitlists pre- May 1. If they do, they either intentionally under admitted (a tactic typically employed to reduce admit rate and impact rankings/prestige), or they truly are having an unexpected drop in yield this year. So if you’re on a wait list, expect news post- May 1 and be sure you deposit at your second choice school to hold your place.